Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure     

Mark Bebbington  Shane J. Cronin  Ian Chapman  Michael B. Turner 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.  相似文献   

Eruption episodes and magma recharge events in andesitic systems: Mt Taranaki,New Zealand     

Michael B. Turner  Shane J. Cronin  Ian E. Smith  Robert B. Stewart  Vince E. Neall 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Eruption episodes, where a series of eruption events are generically related, can include the eruption of a wide spectrum of volcanic activity over decadal periods. This paper concentrates on the opening phases of an eruption episode which occurred approximately 1800 yrs BP from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand. These events spanned the eruption of differing bulk compositions and styles from two distinct vent locations; an andesitic sub-plinian eruption from the summit vent and a scoria cone-building eruption of basaltic magma from a satellite vent. Compositional profiles and zoning textures of plagioclase, amphibole and clinopyroxene phenocrysts from the opening andesitic event show evidence of magma mixing and subsequent crystallisation just prior to the initiation of the eruption episode. Titanomagnetite grain morphology and Ti variation suggest that the magma mixing event occurred within a few days to weeks before the eruption acting as a trigger for it. We present a magmatic model which is constrained by the petrological observations and eruptions of the episode. In this model magma differentiation at depth causes its rise and recharging of a mid-crustal magma storage area at 5–7 km. Although the recharging magma differed slightly in oxygen fugacity and temperature, it was compositionally and physically similar enough to the residing andesitic magma to allow efficient mixing. The petrological characteristics described here can be readily observed and enable identification of mixing events in other recent eruption episodes.  相似文献   

Merging eruption datasets: building an integrated Holocene eruptive record for Mt Taranaki,New Zealand     

Michael B. Turner  Mark S. Bebbington  Shane J. Cronin  Robert B. Stewart 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2009,71(8):903-918

Acquiring detailed eruption frequency datasets for a volcano system is essential for realistic eruption forecasts. However, accurate datasets are inherently difficult to compile, even if one or more well-dated eruption records are available. A single record typically under-represents the eruption frequency, while combining two or more records may result in an overrepresentation. Although glass compositions have proven to be successful in tephrochronological studies of dominantly rhyolitic tephras; microlitic growth and thin glass shards inhibit their application to andesitic tephras. A method consisting of a combination of two techniques for correlating syn-eruptive deposits is demonstrated on data from the typical andesitic stratovolcano of Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand. Firstly, tentative matches are identified using the radiocarbon age and associated error of each event. Secondly, the compositions of titanomagnetite micro-phenocrysts are used as an independent check, and shown to be a useful correlation tool where age data is available. Using two lake-core records containing tephra layers in an overlapping time-frame, the radiocarbon age-correlation procedure suggested 31 tephra matches. Geochemistry data were available for 15 of these pairs. In three of these cases, the titanomagnetite compositions did not match. Hence, these “paired” tephras were from compositionally distinct magmas and therefore likely represent separate events. An additional three matches were reassigned within the temporal uncertainty limits of the dating procedure, based on better geochemical pairing. The final combined dataset suggests that there have been at least 138 separate ash fall-producing eruptions between 96 and 10 150 years B.P. from Taranaki. Using the combined dataset the mixture of Weibulls renewal model forecasts a probability of 0.52 for an eruption occurring in the next 50 years at this volcano. The present annual eruption probability is estimated at 1.6%. This likelihood is almost double that obtained when relying on a single stratigraphic record.  相似文献   

Phreatomagmatic volcanic hazards where rift-systems meet the sea, a study from Ambae Island, Vanuatu   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kroly Nmeth  Shane J. Cronin 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009,180(2-4):246

Ambae Island is a mafic stratovolcano located in the northern Vanuatu volcanic arc and has a NE–SW rift-controlled elongated shape. Several hundred scoria cones and fissure-fed lava fields occur along its long axis. After many decades of quiescence, Ambae Island erupted on the 28th of November 2005, disrupting the lives of its 10,000 inhabitants. Its activity remained focused at the central (crater-lake filled) vent and this is where hazard-assessments were focused. These assessments initially neglected that maars, tephra cones and rings occur at each tip of the island where the eruptive activity occurred < 500 and < 300 yr B.P. The products of this explosive phreatomagmatic activity are located where the rift axis meets the sea. At the NE edge of the island five tephra rings occur, each comparable in size to those on the summit of Ambae. Along the NE coastline, a near-continuous cliff section exposes an up to 25 m thick succession of near-vent phreatomagmatic tephra units derived from closely spaced vents. This can be subdivided into two major lithofacies associations. The first association represents when the locus of explosions was below sea level and comprises matrix-supported, massive to weakly stratified beds of coarse ash and lapilli. These are dominant in the lowermost part of the sequence and commonly contain coral fragments, indicating that the loci of explosion were located within a reef or coral sediment near the syn-eruptive shoreline. The second type indicate more stable vent conditions and rapidly repeating explosions of high intensity, producing fine-grained tephra with undulatory bedding and cross-lamination as well as megaripple bedforms. These surge and fall beds are more common in the uppermost part of the succession and form a few-m-thick pile. An older tephra succession of similar character occurs below, and buried trees in growth position, as well as those flattened within base surge beds. This implies that the centre of this eruption was very near the coastline. The processes implied by these deposits are amongst the most violent forms of volcanism on this island. In addition, the lowland and coastal areas affected by these events are the most heavily populated. This circumstance is mirrored on many similar volcanic islands, including the nearby SW Pacific examples of Taveuni (Fiji), Upolu and Savai'i (Samoa), and Ambrym (Vanuatu). These locations are paradoxically often considered safe areas during summit/central-vent eruptions, simply because they are farthest from the central sources of ash-fall and lahar hazard. The observations presented here necessitate a revision of this view.  相似文献   

Assessment of a Sr isotope vital effect (87Sr/86Sr) in marine taxa from Lee Stocking Island, Bahamas     

E. G. Reinhardt  J. Blenkinsop  R. T. Patterson 《Geo-Marine Letters》1999,18(3):241-246

 Data from Lee Stocking Island, Bahamas, confirms the hypothesis that there are no vital effects with the uptake of Sr isotopes (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) at the present mass spectrometer resolution [±2×10^-5 (2σ)]. Our data set contains analyses of 40 samples derived from 37 different calcareous taxa inhabiting a wide range of carbonate subenvironments (i.e., reefal, intertidal, supratidal, mangrove). The mean value of our analyses was 0.709179 with a standard deviation of 2.4×10^-5 (2σ) which was very close to the long-term uncertainty of the strontium isotope methodology [±2.0×10^-5 (2σ)] and to the widely reported ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr value of seawater, which clusters around 0.709175. Received: 14 October 1997 / Revision received: 20 March 1998  相似文献   

Eolian controlled modification of the martian south polar layered deposits     

Michelle R. Koutnik  Shane Byrne  Anthony D. Toigo 《Icarus》2005,174(2):490-501

Data from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) and Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) aboard the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission and the Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) aboard the Mars Odyssey mission have revealed unique surface features in a particular region of the South Polar Layered Deposits (SPLD). The dominant morphology is large-scale quasi-parallel grooves that extend for hundreds of kilometers with only tens of meters of vertical relief, that we have termed here the “Wire Brush” terrain. The grooves are also transected by disjointed, yet roughly continuous, low-relief sinuous ridges that cross roughly perpendicular to the trend-direction of the large-scale grooves and show only tens of meters of relief. We interpret these ridges to be eroded remnants of folded layers. At the northern end of the large-scale grooves there are non-symmetric mounds. They are frequently preceded by a significant depression and/or trailing grooves that are parallel to the Wire Brush trend. We find that a two-stage process involving winds that intermittently remove a low-density crust exposing the underlying ice to ablation is the interpretation that best explains the multitude of features observed here. These features appear to be currently inactive indicating higher winds in previous epochs.  相似文献   

Paleolimnology of McNearney lake: an acidic lake in northern Michigan     

Robert B. Cook  Russell G. Kreis Jr.  John C. Kingston  Keith E. Camburn  Stephen A. Norton  Myron J. Mitchell  Brian Fry  Linda C. K. Shane 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1990,3(1):13-34

McNearney Lake is an acidic (pH=4.4) lake in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan with low acid neutralizing capacity (ANC=-38 eq L^-1) and high SO _inf4 ^sup2- and aluminium concentrations. Oligotrophy is indicated by high Secchi transparency and by low chlorophyll a, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen concentrations. The lake water is currently acidic because base cations are supplied to the lake water at a low rate and because SO _inf4 ^sup2- from atmospheric deposition was not appreciably retained by the lake sediments or watershed and was present in the water column.This interdisciplinary paleolimnological study indicates that McNearney Lake is naturally acidic and has been so since at least 4000 years B.P., as determined from inferred-pH techniques based on contemporary diatom-pH relationships. Predicted pH values ranged from 4.7 to 5.0 over the 4000-year stratigraphy. Considerable shifts in species composition and abundance were observed in diatom stratigraphy, but present-day distributions indicate that all abundant taxa most frequently occur under acidic conditions, suggesting that factors other than pH are responsible for the shifts. The diatom-inferred pH technique as applied to McNearney Lake has too large an uncertainly and is not sensitive enough to determine the subtle recent changes in lakewater pH expected from changes in atmospheric deposition because: (1) McNearney Lake has the lowest pH in the contemporary diatom data set in the region and confidence intervals for pH predictions increase at the extremes of regressions; (2) other factors in addition to pH may be responsible for the diatom species distribution in the lake and in the entire northern Great Lakes region; (3) McNearney Lake has a well-buffered pH as a consequence of its low pH and high aluminium concentrations and is not expected to exhibit a large pH change as a result of changes in atmospheric deposition; and (4) atmospheric deposition in the region is modest and would not cause a pH shift large enough to be discernable in McNearney Lake.Elevated atmospheric deposition is indicated in recent sediments by Pb, V, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon accumulation rates and to a lesser extent by those of Cu and Zn; however, these accumulation rates are substantially lower than those observed for acidified lakes in the northeastern United States. Although atmospheric loadings of materials associated with fossil fuel combustion have recently increased to McNearney Lake and apparently are continuing, the present study of the diatom subfossil record does not indicate a distinct, recent acidification (pH decrease).Order of the first two authors is alphabetical  相似文献   

An iron isotope signature related to electron transfer between aqueous ferrous iron and goethite     

Je-Hun Jang  Ryan Mathur  Laura J. Liermann  Shane Ruebush  Susan L. Brantley 《Chemical Geology》2008,250(1-4):40-48

We measured the Fe isotope fractionation during the reactions of Fe(II) with goethite in the presence and absence of a strong Fe(III) chelator (desferrioxamine mesylate, DFAM). All experiments were completed in an O₂-free glove box. The concentrations of aqueous Fe(II) ([Fe(II)_aq]) decreased below the initial total dissolved Fe concentrations ([Fe(II)_total], 2.15 mM) due to fast adsorption within 0.2 day. The concentration of adsorbed Fe(II) ([Fe(II)_ads]) was determined as the difference between [Fe(II)_aq] and the concentration of extracted Fe(II) in 0.5 M HCl ([Fe(II)_extr]) (i.e., [Fe(II)_ads] = [Fe(II)_extr] − [Fe(II)_aq]). [Fe(II)_ads] also decreased with time in experiments with and without DFAM, documenting that fast adsorption was accompanied by a second, slower reaction. Interestingly, [Fe(II)_extr] was always smaller than [Fe(II)_total], indicating that some Fe(II) was sequestered into a pool that is not HCl-extractable. The difference was attributed to Fe(II) incorporated into goethite structure (i.e., [Fe(II)_inc] = [Fe(II)_total] −[Fe(II)_extr]). More Fe(II) was incorporated in the presence of DFAM than in its absence at all time steps. Regardless of the presence of DFAM, both aqueous and extracted Fe(II) (δ^56/54Fe(II)_aq and δ^56/54Fe(II)_extr) became isotopically lighter than or similar to goethite (− 0.27‰) at day 7, implying that the isotope exchange occurred between bulk goethite and aqueous Fe. Consistently, the mass balance indicated that the incorporated Fe is isotopically heavier than extracted Fe. These observations suggested that (i) co-adsorption of Fe(II) with DFAM resulted in more pervasive electron transfer, (ii) the electron transfer from heavy Fe(II) in the adsorbed Fe(II) to light Fe(III) in goethite results in the fixation of heavy adsorbed Fe(III) on the surface and accumulation of Fe(II) within the goethite, and (iii) desorption of the reduced, light Fe from goethite does not necessarily occur at the same surface sites where adsorption occurred.  相似文献   

Editorial     

John Patterson  Peter Bossard 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1991,53(2-3):99-99

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Composition of widespread volcanic glass in deep-sea sediments of the Southern Pacific Ocean: an Antarctic source inferred     

Philip AR Shane  Paul C Froggatt 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1992,54(7):595-601

Widespread Plio-Pleistocene (2.43-0.06 Ma) tephra zones recognised in deep-sea cores from high latitudes (>60°) in the Southern Pacific Ocean were thought to have originated from calc-alkaline rhyolitic eruptions in New Zealand, some 5000 km distant. Electron microprobe analyses of the glasses reveal a wide diversity of alkalic felsic compositions, as well as minor components of basic and intermediate glasses, incompatible with a New Zealand Neogene source but similar to contemporaneous eruptives from the Antarctic region. Most tephra zones are trachytic; seven zones are peralkaline rhyolite. The rhyolitic zones represent a deep-sea record of widespread silicic eruptions from continental Antarctica, possibly Marie Byrd Land. The extent of these rhyolitic zones suggest a greater frequency of large explosive eruptions in Antarctica than previously documented. The coarse grain size of some of the shards (up to 3 mm), their great distance from the closest sources (>1600 km for some cores), and the presence of nonvolcanic ice-rafted debris indicate some of the glasses, especially the more basic compositions, may have been ice-rafted, contrary to previous suggestions of a fallout origin.  相似文献